Favorites March 6th 2022

Ramez Naam @ramez

I hear this often, but Russia's revenue comes far more from oil than from natural gas. Building nukes is great, and can address about 1/3 of Russia's gas exports, or 1/10 of Russia's fossil fuel exports. The much bigger step, however, is to deploy EVs. 1/3

@jason calacanis @Jason

If we want to stop Russia immediately, every western country should pass binding, emergency legislation to build an additional 10 new nuclear plants in the next decade. 100-200 new nuclear power plants would collapse the Russia economy *permanently*. Done.

It's sorta insane to think that deploying EVs, which have only recently become viable is more cost effective than deploying Nuclear Power, which has been possible to build for decades. Humorously, even Elon Musk gets this analysis wrong, despite the fact that getting it right would be so self-serving.

Jimmy @JimmySecUK

This is why so many Russian "advanced" aircraft are getting shot down. They have no precision guided munitions on their aircraft, so they're having to fly much lower to achieve any degree of accuracy in their bombing runs.👇

Oliver Alexander @OAlexanderDK

Video released by Russia of SU-34s taxing and departing prior to attacks in Ukraine. Notice the full load out of OFAB 250-270 dumb bombs on what is one of the Russian Air Force's most advanced aircraft. No PGMs visible at all on the aircraft for these missions. https://t.co/KKWsuowXzE https://t.co/BAaRd6xLUI

I've been wondering about how exactly shoulder mounted missiles (MANPADS) have been able to take out Aircraft, the answer is 'the aircraft are flying real low because their bombs suck'.

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

It seems like we’re inevitably going to get fights about interstate abortion travel and pill shipments etc rather than leaving this up to the state nytimes.com/2022/03/06/ups…

Wow, that graph is somewhat surprising, I guess it's good to know that it's still totally feasable for women to travel to other states if they need to.

Leszek Pacholski @LeszekPacholsk

A modern military is not just a bunch of guys with rifles — it’s a highly complex, specialized force deeply dependent on advanced technology, high-throughput manufacturing, a literate and educated recruitment pool, and many other features of a modern rich industrialized economy.

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 @Noahpinion

Vladimir Putin is reminding us of why we need a strong and active state to defend our fundamental liberties: https://t.co/vzxNr6e8vh

The underlying post, The Tamerlane Principle, was really good, I highly recommend it.

Robert Farley @drfarls

Folks, figure out some kind of script to replace "no fly zone" with "declare war upon Russia" because they're the same thing.

Ken Dilanian @KenDilanianNBC

On @NPR, intel committee member @jahimes just laid out exactly what a no fly zone would mean. To take out air defenses to keep pilots safe, American bombers would have to kill thousands of Russians inside of Russia.

It seems likely to me at this point that Zelensky really doesn't expect NATO to actually establish a No Fly Zone over Ukraine, given what it would entail. Previously I just thought it would mean engaging with Russian aircraft over Ukraine, I did not realize that they'd probably need to take out Russian anti-aircraft guns *IN RUSSIA* to do it. Maybe there's a silver lining to the discussion?

Anders Åslund @anders_aslund

My article today on why Vladimir Putin is losing the information war to Ukraine.

atlanticcouncil.orgWhy Vladimir Putin is losing the information war to UkraineVladimir Putin has long enjoyed a reputation as a master of disinformation, but the Russian ruler is now clearly losing the global information war that is being waged alongside his invasion of Ukraine.

I had not realized that a significant number of foreign reporters had all headed to Ukraine in late 2021, I had ascribed all of the difference in coverage to modern social media.

Market Urbanism @MarketUrbanism

No reckoning whatsoever with how high marginal operating costs driven by the conductor-driven fare payment system is compounding these issues. US commuter railroads would rather shut down than really change the way they operate

Jimmy Vielkind @JimmyVielkind

The nation’s biggest commuter railroads are preparing for potentially permanent shifts in daily ridership, declines that in some cases could threaten their long-term viability. The latest from @scottmcalvert and me, w/ @stephencouncil and @tayloremrey —> https://t.co/JCdP0AeyuM

Conductor-driven fare payment, where you have people go through the train and check every ticket by hand, instead of turnstiles or proof of payment, which are uh... much cheaper.

Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe

Here's the thing about @Visa and @Mastercard leaving Russia: it only affects Visa/Mastercard transactions on cards from Russian banks *outside* Russia. These cards continue to work *in* Russia. This punishes Russians who fled the country, i.e., those who oppose Putin and the war.

Wow, I did not realize how poorly thought-out Visa and Mastercard's actions were.

Emma Ashford @EmmaMAshford

Though I’m sure it’s politically (and perhaps technically) impossible, it honestly feels like one of the most realpolitik things the admin could do right now is quickly conclude a new JCPOA, then normalize relations with Iran in exchange for oil & gas production increases.

Marc Lynch @abuaardvark

“Oh we feel so abandoned” Riyadh and Abu Dhabi say as they work actively against every American policy.

The JCPOA is also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, and yea, since the Saudis aren't exactly helping us recently, seems like a good idea.

As with recent days, the war in Ukraine generated more interesting content than I could possibly fit in full:

• Close up footage of a destroyed Russian Convoy

• Details about Russian vehicles getting stuck in the mud from a US Marine familiar with armored vehicle mud strategies.

• Ukranians captured more Russian Howitzers today than Estonia was trying to donate to them recently.

• Analyst says Russia has lost between 4% and 10% of their entire supply of tanks.

• Very Hopeful thread by former Foreign Minister of Russia.

August 2020, Palo Alto