Favorites March 12th 2022

Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch

4 possible ways this war ends in order of likelihood: 1. Long term fight/insurgency with destruction of Ukrainian cities 2. Putin declares limited demilitarization/“denazification” victory and pulls out 3. Zelensky compromises on NATO and Crimea 4. Putin replaced in palace coup

Worth noting that these are not mutually exclusive.

Mitsuru Obe @mit_obe

Ten Russian naval ships sailed thru Japan strait from Thurs night to early Fri. Again. In Oct., ten Russian & Chinese warships circled Japan archipelago. Russia chose to pick on Japan among G7. Why? Maybe Japan looks more amenable. We should be concerned. bit.ly/3KHlA7j

Am I reading correctly that that strait is international waters? I did not realize such a strait existed.

Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM

NEW: Russia will consider foreign shipments of weapons to Ukraine as “legitimate targets” for the Russian armed forces to attack, state-run RIA Novosti reports, citing Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.

Don't the western powers hand off the weapons in Western Ukraine? Isn't that like, really far from the fighting right now? They also say they're going to put sanctions on US figures... which uh... is that a big deal?

Dave Pell @davepell

Putin did the impossible. He unified America.

USA USA

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Argument that car crash deaths rose during the pandemic less “despite” the fall in driving than because of it — less congested roads allowed for faster speeds which reduced safety.

statmodeling.stat.columbia.eduAuto accidents and “isolation and disruption” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Higher speeds kill, folks.

• Thread with good info about buying an e-bike, including an article by the "Jay Leno of ebikes"

• Financial Times says Russian leaders consider corruption a 'patriotic duty'

• Propublica article about fake fact-checking by Russian news outlets.

• Thread on how Russian state security keeps the military down

May 2020, Tokyo