Favorites July 28 2021

Philip E. Tetlock @PTetlock

Nate nails it. Expect even top forecasters to make lots of mistakes. So, focus on overall track records & capacity to learn. When smart forecasters are consistently over-confident, start suspecting they're not playing a pure-accuracy game (e.g. publicity or policy-advocacy games)

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't care that the prediction is wrong, I'm sure this stuff is hard to predict. It's that he's consistently so overconfident. Now he says he's "positive" the pandemic will be over by October. Well, probably. But there are downside risks: new variants, waning immunity, etc. https://t.co/rfoWbCtwoh

Silver is responding to what now looks like a foolish prediction by Neil Ferguson. Tetlock knows what he's talking about regarding making predictions, his book, Superforecasters, is really good.

A meme page to check every time MatLab crashes @memecrashes

Oh man, this makes me wonder what the average number of legs is. I always liked the joke about the average being less than one, but uhhh, depending on the definition…

Colin McMillen @mcmillen

fuck yeah, Google

apnews.comGoogle delays return to office, mandates vaccinesSAN RAMON, Calif. (AP) — Google is postponing a return to the office for most workers until mid-October and rolling out a policy that will eventually require everyone to be vaccinated once its sprawling campuses are fully reopened.

Love it, this is good stuff.

M.G. Siegler @mgsiegler

One last juicy carrot before the sticks come out! Whatever works! 🥕🪵💰💉💉 https://t.co/QXql6yjEGQ

Gloria Pazmino @GloriaPazmino

New: @NYCMayor is announcing a new vaccination incentive. If you walk into a city vaccination site and get the shot, you will receive $100 dollars. It starts Friday.

Like, on the spot? In a little envelope? I’d prefer twenties, some places won’t break a $100.

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

An underrated distinction between subscription and virality-driven business models is that if you trust someone enough to pay them for content then part of the bargain can be they deliver a measured take when a measured take is warranted. But nobody *shares* a measured take.

Josh Barro @jbarro

As @foster_type noted, people seem to have lost the ability to conceive of the idea that something can be acceptable or appropriate or fine without being heroic. https://t.co/qIo4Hq3HXV

This is regarding how all the coverage of Simone Biles dropping out of the olympics being unnecessarily over the top positive regarding a relatively reasonable decision.

The other advantage is that folks are much more likely to actually read something if they're paying for it. You better believe that if I start paying for a Vegetable subscription, I’m going to make an effort to eat them.

Aaron 🥑🚈🚰🏀 @aceckhouse

is that really your only option, Los Altos? (that's right, I'm reading another batch of RHNA appeals)

Cool to see the structures right there all at once. But I’ve gotta ask, what are these massive 'single family' structures in the corner here? These structures are huge! And so boxy.

Also, if you get into the details of Los Altos' arguments, it's just more BS.

Kim-Mai Cutler @kimmaicutler

I dare every one of you to post this to your local Nextdoor community board as if it were your own.

Timothy McSweeney @mcsweeneys

"I haven’t changed since 1974, so why should my neighborhood?" https://t.co/sf2szLuSWc

I care way too much about what randos on Nextdoor think about me to do it unfortunately. Great piece though.

May 2020