Favorites February 27th 2022

If you’re interested in detailed threads, I’ve got a few you can check out:

Role of transparency and communications

Discussion of strange Russian formation decisions, (they appear to not be using the Battalion tactical group system that would normally be expected)

Further discussion of the Russian formations, but with more memes.

Discussion of strengths and weaknesses of Ukrainian and Russian militaries. Goes on to explain how mythology plays into the long term viability of a nation. (pretty long)

Summary of the wide range of geopolitical shifts in the last week.

Discussion of what we’re learning about modern military conflicts in real time.

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 @Noahpinion

If accurate this would represent 2.2% casualties for the entire Russian force of 190k, over the course of three days. That's about 1/3 the rate that the Allies took casualties on the first day at the Somme. So, still pretty heavy!

OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical

Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malaryar reports 4300 Russian servicemember casualties

He goes on to point out that it's 2x the rate of Chinese casualties during the 1979 invasion of Vietnam.

Ragıp Soylu @ragipsoylu

⚡️⚡️The President of Switzerland announced that the country will join the EU sanctions against Russia. Significant, considering Switzerland’s traditionally neutral stance

Wow, talk about bringing everyone together.

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Need to do some vetting of course but a good way to “sanction” Russia at zero cost to us is to hand out visas to urban, educated horrified & terrified Russian citizens.

Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe

BTW, expect to see a massive exodus...from Russia. Anyone with means and a passport is trying to get out right now. Many urban, educated Russians are horrified and terrified, and they know that it won't just face economic hardship at home but political repression, too.

One of the biggest advantages the US has is that people want to come here! We can use this to our benefit, and yet we barely do.

Shashank Joshi @shashj

My piece on Putin's order to move nuclear forces to a "special mode of combat duty". In peacetime Russia's command system can't transmit launch orders. Raising alert is "connecting the wires, so if a launch order is issued it can go through”—@russianforces

economist.comWith his war going slowly, Vladimir Putin raises the nuclear stakesWhy Russian nuclear forces have been put on a higher state of alertness

Suggestion is that this is to attempt to deter further aid to Ukraine. Brings us back to that previous discussion of finding a 'sweet spot' for sanctions. Equivalent to US DEFCON levels, they have 4 levels, and this is a move from level 1 to level 2.

Mark Nelson @energybants

SOURCES: GERMAN FINANCE MINISTRY DISCUSSING ROLLING BACK NUCLEAR PHASEOUT Trial-balloon report said to be emerging very soon. Germany's LNG-only plan to augment renewables would be ferociously expensive, and it seems that the Ministry of Finance gets this.

This is very good news, nuclear power doesn't emit CO2 and it doesn't make them dependant on Russia.

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 @Noahpinion

Buying into Putin's "decline of the decadent West" theory was incompetence on Xi's part, and fairly reminiscent of Trump.

Daniel W. Drezner @dandrezner

Heckuva job you’re doing partnering with Putin, Xi. https://t.co/DdQEtt7tKm

He suggests further that China should learn some lessons about the danger of trying to conquer places that you historically should own.

Ramez Naam @ramez

Biden should propose a US energy bill as a pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia measure. Take the energy components of Build Back Better. They reduce US demand for both oil and natural gas, which hurts Putin. Add support for further LNG exports. Balance it over 10 years for Manchin. Go.

Nothing helps you move forward legislation like a crisis, this is a great opportunity to get two birds with one stone.

Santa Cruz, 2017