Favorites December 17th 2021

Timothy B. Lee @binarybits

I didn't like the lawless way Trump handled the TikTok situation, but it still seems like a bad idea for a Chinese company to own a major American social network.

Specifically in the way that it impacts the media diets of millions of people in unknown and individualized ways.

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Are we really running this "no evidence" play again? There is some evidence! There's just also a lot of uncertainty.

Long story short, part of the reason there's no evidence on this is that it's hard to gather any data to cleanly compare Omicron with previous variants, because so many people are vaccined or have prior infections, and we have improved interventions. There was also a widly shared Astral Codex Ten article responding to the "no evidence" framing as bad science communication. HOWEVER:

Paul Romer @paulmromer

Faster growth gives negative bias to naive estimate of omicron severity. Using recent rates of growth from @trvrb and @TWenseleers, the bias is by an order of magnitude. This graph gives a qualitative explanation. Blog post calculates the numbers. paulromer.net/grow-severity-…

That doesn't mean that the intended meaning of that earlier headline was false. They seemed to be implying that Omicron might actually be as severe as previous strains, and the above article makes the possible situation quite clear.

Sabina Vohra-Miller @SabiVM

This is really devastating news. The Pfizer two-dose 3mcg in kids aged <5 was found to not be effective. They now intend on adding a 3rd dose to this regimen. Personally I feel they need to test a higher 10mcg dose. Also testing 3rd doses in ages 5-16.

bloomberg.comBloomberg - Are you a robot?

What a bummer, testing a third dose will take at least 3 months apparently. Moderna is running a trial as well, but given they're still not approved for anyone under 18, I don't expect their doses for toddlers to be approved quickly.

Santa Cruz, March 2021