Noah Smith 🐇@Noahpinion
Lab Leak Theory: The Sequel!
Jonatan Pallesen @jonatanpallesen
I think Omicron was with high likelihood a lab leak too. And most of the world is failing *again* to take this possibility seriously.
1/n
9:00 AM · Dec 31, 2021
7 Reposts · 158 Likes
Noah Smith 🐇@Noahpinion
This thread is absolutely wild.
Rep. Eric Swalwell @RepSwalwell
A man DM’d I should be shot. For my family’s safety, I asked Twitter for help ID’ing him. When Twitter fell short (thanks for trying!) I asked the guy his name (stringing him a bit) & why he threatened me. Meet Jeremy Marshall who told me he was radicalized by Tucker Carlson. 🧵
9:01 AM · Dec 31, 2021
25 Reposts · 355 Likes
Stephen Diehl@smdiehl
This is the most basic argument against crypto that I tell all the people who call me. The tech doesn't work, and the fundamental idea is ahistorical and flawed. Writing it down so I don't have to repeat myself all the time.
The Case Against Crypto
stephendiehl.com
The Case Against Crypto
12:53 PM · Dec 31, 2021
479 Reposts · 1.68K Likes
Nate Silver@NateSilver538
One difference is that Bush had good reason to think a perpetual war on terror mentality would benefit him politically in 2002/2004, whereas I doubt that Biden believes that a "perpetual war on COVID" mentality will help him in 2022/2024.
Robby Soave @robbysoave
@NateSilver538 Yes, absolutely there will be. We still take off our shoes and belts, and throw out water bottles, because of 9/11.
3:13 PM · Dec 31, 2021
37 Reposts · 732 Likes
Noah Smith 🐇@Noahpinion
When Twitter bans extremists, it thus strengthens the message of moderates on the *same side*. Freed from the burden of having to deal with their own crazies, they are free to focus on crafting messages with broader appeal.
6:15 PM · Dec 31, 2021
3 Reposts · 124 Likes
Noah Smith 🐇@Noahpinion
The extremists of the Right are more dangerous than the extremists of the Left, meaning Twitter will ban them more vigorously (and of course Twitter's employees lean strongly to the left as well). But this will end up helping the conservative movement on Twitter in the long run.
6:19 PM · Dec 31, 2021
4 Reposts · 100 Likes
Noah Smith 🐇@Noahpinion
People now correctly realize that a U.S. civil war will only happen if the U.S. Military splits and fights itself over a disputed presidential election.
And I think the military is taking appropriate steps to reduce the (already small) chance of this.
npr.org
Retired general warns the U.S. military could lead a coup after the 2024 election
8:42 PM · Dec 31, 2021
10 Reposts · 123 Likes
Peter Murray@DataG
Came across this six-month-old tweet from @doctorow. "Conservatism is the desire to be a child" explains so much.
Cory Doctorow MOSTLY AFK @doctorow
@jonrog1 A pathology of conservativism is that 'things used to be simple.' No, you used to be a kid. Your parents shielded you from life's complexity. Things are complex because you're an adult now. Conservativism is the desire to be a child.
8:03 PM · Dec 31, 2021
221 Reposts · 628 Likes
James Medlock@jdcmedlock
State Owned Enterprises posting their W's bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
10:06 PM · Dec 31, 2021
90 Reposts · 632 Likes
Reza Zadeh@Reza_Zadeh
eg for ImageNet, which has 1.4 x 10⁷ images of size roughly 2x10⁵ this theory of robustness predicts that to obtain good robust models on ImageNet one would need at least 10^¹⁰ - 10^¹¹ parameters. So current models are still *too small*. Great work by @SebastienBubeck.
10:56 PM · Dec 31, 2021
10 Likes
Matthew Yglesias@mattyglesias
Every successful new technology attracted its share of skeptics, doubters, and haters but the DC parking enforcement people seem to make good use out of their segways.
11:29 PM · Dec 31, 2021
3 Reposts · 107 Likes