David's Favorites April 18 2021

Now with 50% less D&D related content

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Science shatters all illusions

sciencemag.orgThe legendary dire wolf may not have been a wolf at allNorth America’s “top dog” traveled a lonely evolutionary path

The artist’s rendering tells most of the story, but to be more specific: "mounting evidence has convinced the team to recommend taking dire wolves out of the Canis genus entirely and putting them elsewhere in the larger Canid family, which—in addition to wolves and coyotes—includes foxes, jackals, and other doglike carnivores."

Later in the article: "As such, she says, dire wolves may have resembled ‘a giant, reddish coyote.’"

Darrell Owens @IDoTheThinking

"The housing inventory in Berkeley is very low: it has hovered between 505 and 574 houses for the past five years...Most of the inventory we are getting is because people have died...nobody leaves Berkeley except in a box.” Ok, so this is textbook definition of "shortage."

Berkeleyside @berkeleyside

Berkeley real estate is in a pandemic rise to the stratosphere https://t.co/aPkHNBcFYs

I’m happy Berkeley appears to be moving quickly towards legalizing duplexes in single family areas.

Dan Morgan @dr_dmorgan

How good are doctors at diagnosis? This is the most relevant paper I have written. Not perfect but addresses a huge issue I think could change medicine if acknowledged …it has changed how I think about diagnosis ja.ma/3rQNtjv @JAMAInternalMed @drjohnm 1/n

ja.maAccuracy of Practitioner Estimates of Probability of Diagnosis Before and After TestingThis survey study of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants explores practitioner understanding of diagnostic reasoning.

Dan Morgan @dr_dmorgan

summary: Clinicians widely overestimated chance of disease especially after testing Cardiac ischemia after + ECG—EBM 2-11%, median answer 70% UTI after + urine cx—EBM 0-8.3%, answer 80% Breast CA after + mammo—EBM 3-9%, answer 50% Pneumonia after + CXR EBM 46-65%, answer 95%

The graphs in the linked study really drive the point home

Talking about estimated probabilities is hard.

Maggie Koerth @maggiekb1

I was explaining to an out-of-town friend that public schools were going to be closed three days next week because of the end of the Chauvin trial. And he was like “why?” And that was the first time I’d said, out loud, “because the district is assuming he’ll get off, I think.”

If you haven’t been following, the Chauvin trial is regarding the murder of George Floyd by Derek Chauvin.

southpaw @nycsouthpaw

I really can’t process this. wsj.com/articles/india…

Not that you’re necessarily looking to learn more, but this ‘autopsy of a fandom’ video was pretty good.

Kim-Mai Cutler @kimmaicutler

Like Khashoggi consequences or Hong Kong consequences or what? https://t.co/cLLmgiXrBq

Jonathan Lemire @JonLemire

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on CNN: “We have communicated [to Russia] that there will be consequences if Mr. Navalny dies.”

Not sure if I’ve linked it here previously, but the best way ‘own’ China regarding their actions in Hong Kong would be to grant US citizenship to anyone from Hong Kong who wants it.

Ars Technica @arstechnica

NASA selects SpaceX as its sole provider for a lunar lander arstechnica.com/science/2021/0… by @SciGuySpace

arstechnica.comNASA selects SpaceX as its sole provider for a lunar lander“We looked at what’s the best value to the government.”

So, slight inaccuracy in yesterday’s post, the SpaceX Starship really will only be used as the lander. Based on this Ars Technica article my understanding is that astronauts will get to and from the moon on the much smaller Orion spacecraft on top of a Space Launch System rocket that NASA is legally required to build and use.

Dan Sheehan @ItsDanSheehan

vaccine posting alignment chart

Ollie @whalefern

the crucial 4th ice cream bowl was lost at some point, forever altering the vibe